Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3556
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Yesterday
YX 3556 · EWR → STL
departs 2:30 PM ET · arrives 4:12 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 15%
Sun 10/4 16%
Mon 10/5 17%
Fri 10/9 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±0 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
11%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at STL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
How late will it get to STL?
On time or early
59%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
11%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
STL is prone to delays
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.04 in
STL (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.