Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3556
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
YX 3556 · EWR → STL
departs 2:30 PM ET · arrives 4:12 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Sat 10/3 9%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at STL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to STL?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at EWR that day
↑
Arrivals into STL at that hour are often late
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.23 in
STL (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.