Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3562
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
YX 3562 · EWR → MKE
departs 4:47 PM ET · arrives 6:26 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 AM ET · 11h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 26%
Mon 10/5 18%
Tue 10/6 16%
Wed 10/7 17%
Thu 10/8 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at MKE more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±0 pts
+13 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
29%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
10%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.8d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MKE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +13 pts in 24h
+13 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
29%
Yes 29%
No 71%
Arrive at MKE more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
How late will it get to MKE?
On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
10%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Other factors
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
MKE (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 4,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.