Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3562
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
YX 3562 · EWR → MKE
departs 4:47 PM ET · arrives 6:26 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 PM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 18%
Tue 10/6 18%
Wed 10/7 19%
Thu 10/8 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at MKE more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±0 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
7%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MKE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at MKE more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to MKE?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at EWR that day
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.23 in
MKE (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.