Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3576
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
YX 3576 · IAD → MSP
departs 1:20 PM ET · arrives 3:11 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 9%
Sun 10/4 10%
Mon 10/5 11%
Wed 10/7 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD
↑
IAD is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 15% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSP
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
IAD (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
MSP (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 11,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.