Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3592
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Yesterday
YX 3592 · EWR → ILM
departs 9:53 PM ET · arrives 11:44 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 18%
Sun 10/4 35%
Mon 10/5 18%
Fri 10/9 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at ILM more than 15 minutes late?
45%
chance · ±0 pts
+10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
45%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
5%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
4.0d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ILM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 44% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 43% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at ILM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to ILM?
On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Gusts to 28 kt forecast at EWR that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.04 in
ILM (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 0.25 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.