Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3596
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
YX 3596 · EWR → DTW
departs 4:20 PM ET · arrives 6:19 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 30%
Mon 10/5 18%
Fri 10/9 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±0 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
10%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 46% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
12%
Cancelled
10%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.04 in
DTW (destination)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 1.75 mi Precip 1.43 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.