Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3596
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
YX 3596 · EWR → DTW
departs 4:20 PM ET · arrives 6:19 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 46%
Sat 10/3 10%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
4%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at EWR that day
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.13 in
DTW (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 6 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.