Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3596
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
YX 3596 · EWR → DTW
departs 4:20 PM ET · arrives 6:19 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 18h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 46%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 23%
Mon 10/5 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.8d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into DTW at that hour are often late
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 6,080 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DTW (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.