Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3684
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Yesterday
YX 3684 · GSP → EWR
departs 11:18 AM ET · arrives 1:20 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 14%
Sun 10/4 9%
Mon 10/5 11%
Fri 10/9 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±0 pts
−13 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −13 pts in 24h
−13 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave GSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −13 pts in 24h
−13 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Arrivals into EWR at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
GSP (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 5,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
EWR (destination)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.