Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3712
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
YX 3712 · ORF → EWR
departs 6:00 AM ET · arrives 7:39 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 AM ET · 2h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 7%
Sun 10/4 8%
Mon 10/5 7%
Tue 10/6 5%
Wed 10/7 6%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
6%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
6%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
9%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
3.3d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Leave ORF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
9%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
ORF is prone to delays
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORF
Weather at each end
ORF (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
EWR (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.