Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3712
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
YX 3712 · ORF → EWR
departs 6:00 AM ET · arrives 7:39 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 9:00 AM ET · 69h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 8%
Sat 10/3 7%
Sun 10/4 6%
Mon 10/5
Tue 10/6 5%
Wed 10/7 6%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±1 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.2d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave ORF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
No breakdown for this forecast yet.
Weather at each end
ORF (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.6 mi Precip 0.43 in
EWR (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.