Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4340
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
YX 4340 · DCA → JAX
departs 11:58 AM ET · arrives 2:09 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 8:00 PM ET · 8h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Mon 10/5 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±0 pts
+13 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
6%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +13 pts in 24h
+13 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at JAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
How late will it get to JAX?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
6%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at JAX that day
↑
DCA is prone to delays
↑
11am departures from DCA are often late
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
JAX usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.05 in
JAX (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 1.87 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.