Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4381
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
YX 4381 · CHO → LGA
departs 3:01 PM ET · arrives 4:33 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 42%
Mon 10/5 45%
Fri 10/9 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±0 pts
−10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 36% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave CHO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −15 pts in 24h
−15 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at LGA that day
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↓
CHO is quiet at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CHO
Weather at each end
CHO (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 6,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.21 in
LGA (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 4,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.