Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4389
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
YX 4389 · CLE → JFK
departs 5:05 PM ET · arrives 6:59 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 18h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 10%
Sun 10/4 21%
Mon 10/5 19%
Tue 10/6 12%
Wed 10/7 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±3 pts
−8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
15%
Cancelled
11%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.8d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave CLE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −11 pts in 24h
−11 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at JFK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −11 pts in 24h
−11 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
How late will it get to JFK?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
11%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
JFK is prone to delays
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
↓
CLE usually runs smoothly
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
CLE (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.68 in
JFK (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.