Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4400
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
YX 4400 · MHT → ORD
departs 6:18 PM ET · arrives 8:30 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 PM ET · 2h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 27%
Mon 10/5 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±0 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
29%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
10%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave MHT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
29%
Yes 29%
No 71%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
10%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
MHT is prone to delays
↓
Other factors
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
MHT (origin)
Gusts 31 kt Ceiling 7,500 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.40 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.10 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.