Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4400
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
YX 4400 · MHT → ORD
departs 6:18 PM ET · arrives 8:30 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 AM ET · 59h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 38%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 23%
Tue 10/6 30%
Wed 10/7 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave MHT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
MHT is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
MHT (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.