Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4407
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
YX 4407 · DCA → IND
departs 11:59 AM ET · arrives 1:56 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 AM ET · 11h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Mon 10/5 12%
Tue 10/6 10%
Wed 10/7 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±0 pts
+11 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
4%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.6d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at IND more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to IND?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at IND that day
↑
DCA is prone to delays
↑
11am departures from DCA are often late
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
IND usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.10 in
IND (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.42 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.