Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4416
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
YX 4416 · DCA → EYW
departs 8:33 AM ET · arrives 11:48 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 AM ET · 2h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 16%
Sun 10/4 14%
Mon 10/5 16%
Tue 10/6 14%
Wed 10/7 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at EYW more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±0 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
17%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.4d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EYW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at EYW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +16 pts in 24h
+16 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
How late will it get to EYW?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
17%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at EYW that day
↑
EYW is prone to delays
↑
DCA is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
↓
Arrivals into EYW at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.10 in
EYW (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 3,000 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.33 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.