Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4421
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
YX 4421 · GSO → LGA
departs 6:18 PM ET · arrives 8:04 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 42%
Mon 10/5 39%
Fri 10/9 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
66%
chance · ±0 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
66%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
34%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
3.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 66% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
66%
Yes 66%
No 34%
Leave GSO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 43% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −13 pts in 24h
−13 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
33%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
26%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
Weather at each end
GSO (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 4,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.