Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4425
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Tomorrow
YX 4425 · ORD → MSP
departs 3:43 PM CT · arrives 5:32 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 18h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 18%
Sun 10/4 18%
Mon 10/5 20%
Tue 10/6 21%
Wed 10/7 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±1 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.8d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
3pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
Arrivals into MSP at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 21% of the time recently
↓
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSP
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 4.71429 mi Precip 0.24 in
MSP (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 11,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.