Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4429
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
YX 4429 · ILM → LGA
departs 6:37 PM ET · arrives 8:29 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 9:00 AM ET · 10h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 41%
Mon 10/5 33%
Tue 10/6 25%
Wed 10/7 41%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
75%
chance · ±0 pts
+17 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
75%
Leave 15+ late
60%
Arrive 1h+ late
41%
Cancelled
33%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
3.9d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +17 pts in 24h
+17 pts
75%
Yes 75%
No 25%
Leave ILM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
60%
Yes 60%
No 40%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +18 pts in 24h
+18 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
16%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
19%
Over 2 hours late
9%
Cancelled
33%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
ILM (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 0.25 mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.32 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.