Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4429
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
YX 4429 · ILM → LGA
departs 5:17 PM ET · arrives 7:10 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 63%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±7 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
22%
Cancelled
14%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
5.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave ILM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +15 pts in 24h
+15 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
14%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at LGA that day
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 1.2 in of rain forecast at ILM that day
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
ILM (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 1.10 in
LGA (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.11 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.