Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4433
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
YX 4433 · IND → DCA
departs 9:13 PM ET · arrives 10:59 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 23%
Fri 10/9 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
64%
chance · ±1 pts
+30 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
64%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
7%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
4.0d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 66% · changed +30 pts in 24h
+30 pts
64%
Yes 64%
No 36%
Leave IND more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 48% · changed +15 pts in 24h
+15 pts
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
34%
15–30 min late
29%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 28 kt forecast at DCA that day
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
IND usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
IND (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.45 in
DCA (destination)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 3,300 ft Visibility 2.5 mi Precip 0.76 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.