Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4436
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
YX 4436 · LGA → RDU
departs 4:30 PM ET · arrives 6:43 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 53%
Mon 10/5 46%
Fri 10/9 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±0 pts
−9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
4%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
9%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
4pm departures from LGA are often late
↓
Other factors
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 4,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
RDU (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.