Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4449
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
YX 4449 · JFK → IND
departs 3:30 PM ET · arrives 6:02 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 AM ET · 14h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 10%
Sun 10/4 15%
Mon 10/5 13%
Tue 10/6 11%
Wed 10/7 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±4 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
5%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.7d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at IND more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to IND?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
9%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
↑
JFK is prone to delays
↑
3pm departures from JFK are often late
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
JFK (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
IND (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.42 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.