Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4449
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
YX 4449 · JFK → IND
departs 3:30 PM ET · arrives 6:02 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 2:00 AM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 19%
Mon 10/5 13%
Tue 10/6 11%
Wed 10/7 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±2 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at IND more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IND?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
3pm departures from JFK are often late
↑
JFK is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
Weather at each end
JFK (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 5,333 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
IND (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.