Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4452
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Yesterday
YX 4452 · DCA → IND
departs 2:35 PM ET · arrives 4:35 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 33%
Sun 10/4 19%
Mon 10/5 15%
Tue 10/6 16%
Wed 10/7 13%
Thu 10/8 14%
Fri 10/9 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±0 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at IND more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IND?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
2pm departures from DCA are often late
↑
DCA is prone to delays
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
IND usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 3,300 ft Visibility 2.5 mi Precip 0.76 in
IND (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.45 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.