Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4466
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
YX 4466 · PHL → SDF
departs 8:38 PM ET · arrives 11:03 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 AM ET · 16h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 8%
Sun 10/4 28%
Mon 10/5 15%
Tue 10/6 10%
Wed 10/7 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±3 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.9d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at SDF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SDF?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from PHL are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.5 in of rain forecast at SDF that day
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
PHL (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SDF (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.53 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.