Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4466
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
YX 4466 · PHL → SDF
departs 8:38 PM ET · arrives 11:03 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 AM ET · 39h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 19%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 28%
Mon 10/5 15%
Tue 10/6 10%
Wed 10/7 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±0 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at SDF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SDF?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from PHL are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into SDF at that hour are often late
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
Weather at each end
PHL (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 5,333 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
SDF (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 1,367 ft Visibility 9.33333 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.