Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4468
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
YX 4468 · DCA → STL
departs 3:00 PM ET · arrives 4:29 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 AM ET · 14h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Mon 10/5 21%
Tue 10/6 19%
Wed 10/7 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.7d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at STL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to STL?
On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
3pm departures from DCA are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
↑
This flight has been late 28% of the time recently
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.10 in
STL (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 780 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.20 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.