Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4474
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
YX 4474 · DCA → JFK
departs 7:58 PM ET · arrives 9:30 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 9:00 PM ET · 1h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Mon 10/5 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
56%
chance · ±0 pts
+10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
56%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
39%
Cancelled
16%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
3.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 56% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
56%
Yes 56%
No 44%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 45% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at JFK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 36% · changed +21 pts in 24h
+21 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
How late will it get to JFK?
On time or early
37%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
19%
Over 2 hours late
14%
Cancelled
16%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
7pm departures from DCA are often late
↑
Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 3,300 ft Visibility 2.5 mi Precip 0.67 in
JFK (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.