Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4493
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
YX 4493 · RDU → PIT
departs 7:00 PM ET · arrives 8:28 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 30%
Mon 10/5 11%
Fri 10/9 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at PIT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PIT?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at PIT that day
↑
7pm departures from RDU are often late
↓
PIT usually runs smoothly
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
RDU (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
PIT (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.12 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.