Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4496
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Yesterday
YX 4496 · RDU → LGA
departs 12:31 PM ET · arrives 2:29 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 16%
Sun 10/4 17%
Mon 10/5 26%
Fri 10/9 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at LGA that day
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
RDU (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 4,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.