Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4496
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
YX 4496 · RDU → LGA
departs 12:20 PM ET · arrives 2:17 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 AM ET · 55h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 32%
Sat 10/3 9%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 21%
Tue 10/6 16%
Wed 10/7 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 21% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 1.3 in of rain forecast at RDU that day
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
RDU (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 1.30 in
LGA (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.06 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.