Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4523
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
YX 4523 · DCA → MSN
departs 10:50 AM ET · arrives 12:13 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 12h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Mon 10/5 10%
Tue 10/6 8%
Wed 10/7 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSN more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±0 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.5d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at MSN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to MSN?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
DCA is prone to delays
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.10 in
MSN (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 6,914 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.