Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4557
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
YX 4557 · DCA → HYA
departs 11:56 AM ET · arrives 1:36 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 3:00 AM ET · 9h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at HYA more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±0 pts
+10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.6d
2d
1d
12h
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HYA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at HYA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HYA?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
11am departures from DCA are often late
↑
DCA is prone to delays
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Arrivals into HYA at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.10 in
HYA (destination)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.09 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.