Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4560
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
YX 4560 · RDU → LGA
departs 8:20 PM ET · arrives 10:14 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 AM ET · 13h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 37%
Mon 10/5 24%
Tue 10/6 25%
Wed 10/7 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
55%
chance · ±0 pts
+18 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
55%
Leave 15+ late
46%
Arrive 1h+ late
22%
Cancelled
17%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.9d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +18 pts in 24h
+18 pts
55%
Yes 55%
No 45%
Leave RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +17 pts in 24h
+17 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +15 pts in 24h
+15 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
37%
15–30 min late
24%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
17%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↓
Other factors
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
RDU (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.