Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4560
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
YX 4560 · RDU → LGA
departs 8:20 PM ET · arrives 10:14 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 9:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 64%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 24%
Tue 10/6 24%
Wed 10/7 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
38%
chance · ±8 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
38%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
11%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
5.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Leave RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
11%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at LGA that day
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 36% of the time recently
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
RDU (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.78 in
LGA (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.11 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.