Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4573
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
YX 4573 · JFK → RDU
departs 10:10 PM ET · arrives 12:12 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 AM ET · 15h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 16%
Sun 10/4 26%
Mon 10/5 13%
Tue 10/6 10%
Wed 10/7 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±5 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
4%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.0d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
10pm departures from JFK are often late
↑
JFK is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into RDU at that hour are often late
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU
Weather at each end
JFK (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
RDU (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.