Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4573
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
YX 4573 · JFK → RDU
departs 9:00 PM ET · arrives 11:09 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 12:00 AM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 17%
Mon 10/5 13%
Tue 10/6 10%
Wed 10/7 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at RDU that day
↑
Arrivals into RDU at that hour are often late
↑
9pm departures from JFK are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
JFK (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
RDU (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.32 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.