Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4584
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
YX 4584 · DCA → CHS
departs 1:24 PM ET · arrives 3:16 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Mon 10/5 20%
Fri 10/9 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at CHS more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±0 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CHS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at CHS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CHS?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
1pm departures from DCA are often late
↑
DCA is prone to delays
↑
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CHS
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 3,300 ft Visibility 2.5 mi Precip 0.76 in
CHS (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.