Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4605
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
YX 4605 · LGA → ATL
departs 11:51 AM ET · arrives 2:28 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 3:00 AM ET · 9h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 10%
Sun 10/4 15%
Mon 10/5 16%
Tue 10/6 15%
Wed 10/7 17%
Thu 10/8 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±0 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
5%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.6d
2d
1d
12h
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at ATL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to ATL?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
11am departures from LGA are often late
↑
This flight has been late 25% of the time recently
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ATL
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
ATL (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.