Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4605
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
YX 4605 · LGA → ATL
departs 12:00 PM ET · arrives 2:35 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 3:00 AM ET · 57h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 17%
Sat 10/3 10%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 16%
Tue 10/6 15%
Wed 10/7 17%
Thu 10/8 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at ATL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ATL?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 1.4 in of rain forecast at ATL that day
↑
12pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
This flight has been late 25% of the time recently
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.06 in
ATL (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 1.80 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.