Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4607 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Tomorrow

YX 4607 · LGA → AVL

departs 4:15 PM ET · arrives 6:26 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 2:00 AM ET · 38h before departure

Arrive at AVL more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±2 pts +13 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to AVL?

On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
11%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↑ 4pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↓ YX's recent on-time record

↓ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi forecast at AVL that day

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.07 in

AVL (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.3 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4607 · LGA → AVL

Odds over time

How late will it get to AVL?