Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4607
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
YX 4607 · LGA → ATL
departs 5:17 PM ET · arrives 7:55 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 8:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Fri 10/2 37%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 21%
Mon 10/5 24%
Tue 10/6 18%
Wed 10/7 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±5 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at ATL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to ATL?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ATL at that hour are often late
↑
5pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
0.4 in of rain forecast at ATL that day
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ATL (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 3,800 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.43 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.