Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4617
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
YX 4617 · CMH → LGA
departs 5:19 PM ET · arrives 7:12 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 45%
Mon 10/5 31%
Fri 10/9 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
44%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
44%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
17%
Cancelled
8%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 44% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Leave CMH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −12 pts in 24h
−12 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
51%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
22%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
8%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
CMH (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 1.75 mi Precip 0.38 in
LGA (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 4,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.