Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4617
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
YX 4617 · CMH → LGA
departs 5:19 PM ET · arrives 7:12 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 24%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±6 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
23%
Cancelled
10%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave CMH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
10%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at LGA that day
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CMH
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
CMH (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.21 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.