Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4654
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
YX 4654 · LGA → DCA
departs 10:47 AM ET · arrives 12:17 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 AM ET · 7h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 9%
Sun 10/4 19%
Mon 10/5 17%
Tue 10/6 13%
Wed 10/7 16%
Thu 10/8 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
21%
chance · ±0 pts
+10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
21%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
6%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.5d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
6%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
10am departures from LGA are often late
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
DCA (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.10 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.