Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4664
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
YX 4664 · DCA → IND
departs 6:30 AM ET · arrives 8:26 AM ET
Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 8h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 5%
Mon 10/5 5%
Tue 10/6 5%
Wed 10/7 5%
Odds over time
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
4%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
3.4d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at IND more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to IND?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at IND that day
↑
DCA is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into IND at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.10 in
IND (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.47 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.